Reports are mixed about whether the U.S. will face a recession in 2025. Reuters recently polled 300 economists and found 60 percent of them expect a global recession this year. Sources for USA Today are divided on the chances of a recession. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund is not indicating a recession, but it did raise its chance of a recession from 25 percent to 40 percent.

Over the weekend, a Forbes piece pointed out an economic downturn isn’t a recession until the GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters. The first quarter, the U.S. economy contracted 0.3%. Forbes dives into how to handle a recession if markets plummet.

It takes months or years for a downturn to be officially declared a recession by the Business Cycle Dating Committee, according to Yahoo Finance. The BCDC is a non-governmental, non-partisan entity that identifies recessions.

Economic forecasting remains very fluid, as experts wait to understand whether trade negotiations will be successful.

Many pizzeria operators have experienced economic downturns since the early 2000s, when the dot-com bust and Sept. 11 terrorist attacks ushered in a recession, followed by the 2008 mortgage crisis. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the global economy – and indoor dining, in particular. The pizza industry proved to be resilient through struggles, however. We’ve poured through our archives to share lessons from pizza industry experts during those times. This post dives deep into what we’ve learned from past recessions. As uncertainty prevails, we look to a Maya Angelou quote: “Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.”

Why Pizza Is Practically Recession-Proof (But Not Invincible)

Let’s get this out there right away: When recessions hit, people don’t give up dining out – they just get choosier. And guess what? Pizza usually makes the cut. Dave Ostrander was a foremost operational expert in the pizza industry for many years before his passing in 2019. He discussed business strategies for economic downturns on many occasions. According to Ostrander, “America and the world would really rather let someone else cook for them. That would be you and me.” Pizza’s affordability, shareability and pure comfort factor make it a go-to meal when morale and budgets are both at their lowest.

But don’t get too comfortable. Ostrander also drops this truth bomb, “Underperforming operations will be driven out of business. Hanging on is not a recommended business strategy.” Being in pizza is great, but riding the wave without adjusting? Not so much.

Big Strategies from Past Downturns

1. Know Your Customers (and How They’re Changing)

Every recession is different. Mike Bausch, who’s battled a few, points out during the COVID-19 recession, “You will need to announce yourself, your brand and your business more than ever.” He’s not talking about cutting all costs and hiding under a rock. This is the time to get strategic and really understand your customer base, because their needs are going to shift.

Split your customers into two broad groups:

• Price-Aware (Blue Collar) – These folks always want a deal, but now they want even more value for their buck.

• Experience-Driven (White Collar) – They’re dining out less (and fancier restaurants even less than that), so suddenly your local, mid-upscale pizzeria is a treat.

Don’t favor one group over the other; find clever ways to serve both without losing your shirt. Bausch says, “Take low food cost items and add them in for free as added-value items when people reach a specific price point.” And for customers looking for a ‘night out’ experience, “Curating your dining experience to the high-end customer … can be very profitable.”

2. Get Ruthless with Costs Without Sacrificing Quality

Competitive pricing and managing portions are always paramount. But there’s always room to trim. Ostrander broke it down simply, “We need to look inside our operations and trim any wasteful spending.” That means tightening up on portioning, smart purchasing and reviewing pricing strategies.

Bausch offers some golden nuggets here:

• Adjust your menu as needed; “Bold statement here, but if you don’t change up your menu and pricing at least three times this year, you’re not doing it enough.”

• Tighten contracts with your vendors and drop anything that doesn’t move the bottom line.

And remember, reducing labor costs doesn’t mean overworking your staff. It means getting more efficient. Prioritize streamlined prep and cut out low-selling items that are time- and resource-intensive to produce.

3. Value, Value, Value (But Not Always Discounts)

Don’t go nuts on discounts and coupons. Instead, create “combo ads with perceived value,” as Ostrander suggested in “Recession Buster.” Offer set menus, family deals or creative rebates using gift cards. Here’s an actionable tip straight from the article: “Using gift certificates as your rebate will also heighten awareness of this ‘product’ on your menu. … An average of 16 percent of gift certificates are never redeemed – pure profit for you.”

And think like a fast-food chain! What can you offer for $9.99 or even $5.99 that still makes you money and keeps you top-of-mind for budget-conscious customers?

4. Don’t Disappear – Double Down on Marketing That Works

It’s tempting to slash marketing when things get lean. Resist the urge. Be strategic. Bausch stresses, “Instead of previous recessions where you would switch to more coupons and call it a day, this situation will require more finesse.” Whether it’s old-school mailers with tight ZIP code targeting or creative social media engagement, focus on what you can measure and what moves the needle.

5. Keep Your Team Motivated (and Retained)!

Employees can feel downturns just as much as customers do, and losing good people is expensive. “Your positive attitude in the face of adversity will project to consumers that you are a thriving survivor,” Ostrander says in Recession Buster. Connect with your squad, keep spirits high, and look for ways to incentivize great performance even if you can’t hand out big raises.

Actionable Steps Every Pizzeria Owner Can Try (Today!)

Here’s the down-and-dirty list pulled straight from decades of pizzeria combat stories:

• Review every expense line and question its ROI.

• Change your menu and pricing multiple times per year to reflect costs and customer tastes.

• Switch up your marketing to focus on repeatable, measurable returns.

• Create combo deals or “value menu” items that look generous without killing margins.

• Offer rebates/gift cards as purchase incentives.

• Engage customers with creative community events.

• Tighten vendor contracts and consider renegotiating payroll, phone and internet or other services before food costs.

• Trim low-performing, high-labor dishes and streamline your prep process.

• Stay upbeat! That energy ripples out to your customers and your team.

Hard Times Create Pizza Mavericks

If past downturns have shown us anything, it’s this: Tough times don’t last, but tough pizzerias do. “The pizza industry is what we make it,” Ostrander said. Don’t wait around hoping for a bailout. Use these tips to sharpen your strategy, take care of your people and find new ways to surprise your customers. Remember, every crisis is a chance to get better at what you do best!