Avoid emotional attachment and confirmation bias to improve profitability
Let me start with a confession: I’m having a love affair with my numbers. Not spreadsheets, taxes or balance sheets. I’m talking about beautiful, raw, truth-telling data – especially my go-to report: the PMIX, or product mix.
Too often, operators think about the PMIX only in terms of what is selling. But this report isn’t just a sales tally. It’s a heatmap of guest decision-making shaped by price, menu design and server influence.
Why We Ignore or Misuse PMIX
There are two major reasons pizzeria operators blunder the PMIX: emotional attachment and confirmation bias.
Emotional attachment: You love that Chicken Marsala. It’s your mom’s recipe and loyal customer Bob’s favorite. You’re convinced that if you give it the hatchet, Bob will never return.
Skewed perception, or confirmation bias: Once we realize the Chicken Marsala isn’t performing well, our subconscious takes over – suddenly, we see Marsala flying out of the expo window.
Once we believe something is true, our brain collects evidence to support the idea. We remember the two Marsalas we sold during a slammed Friday night and forget the 28 shifts when no one ordered it.
In my case, that dish was our Four Cheese and Pear Pasta with Brown Butter and Sage. The handful of guests who loved it really loved it. But in four weeks, we sold 20 of them. Twenty orders requiring specialty ingredients, extra time and extra training. Worse, it was often prepared incorrectly and had to be remade. That’s not a star.
Now, I’m not telling you to dismiss your gut. But when instinct is backed by data, we lead with confidence – and it becomes much easier to explain your decisions.
How to Maximize PMIX
Run your PMIX in three-month windows or seasonally to identify trends, not anomalies. Then, compare like with like by segmenting categories – appetizers, pizzas, salads – so you’re evaluating true performance within each group.
Track the average selling price closely. If it falls below the menu price, you might be looking at excessive discounting, comps, guest dissatisfaction or even theft.
Study modifiers. If guests consistently alter a dish, that’s feedback. It might signal an upsell opportunity or a recipe that needs refinement.
Review performance by daypart. What rocks at happy hour might stall at dinner. Context matters.
Now that you understand the landscape, take action. Top sellers should be both profitable and operationally smooth. If they’re bottlenecking your line, streamline execution.
High-margin sleepers are your quiet profit drivers. Promote them intentionally and give them visibility.
Slow movers with low sales and low margins are draining space and attention. Retire, reprice or rename them.
Final thought: If your menu is the map to success, then PMIX is the navigation system. Check it consistently, adjust with intention and drive toward profitability instead of preference.
MELISSA RICKMAN is co-founder of Wholly Stromboli in Fort Lupton, Colorado, and member of the World Pizza Champions.
